Hello, this is Lucas from Forex Wandering Traders LAB.
The happy new year everyone!!
HighLow Markets is now hunting us in earnest.
This is not funny at all.
From December, they have been doing crazy.
Especially, the spread is stupid.
Since it is too high, trade is not fair at all.
BTW, what is the spread?
Maybe some of you don’t know what the spread is, so let me tell you really briefly.
If there are more than $50,000 orders at the same time on HighLow,
they will make our entry point change to be an unfair point on purpose.
Like when the price doesn’t move,
Your entry point only moves.
I bet you have experienced something like this.
This is because of the spread.
If it is Forex, the spread is the fee of entry.
If you only trade with a small amount of money or you are a trend follower, you might not notice.
I mean if you bet more than $50,000
You get the spread easily.
In short, HighLow rose the fee of entry.
* Can’t enter where you are supposed to
*Supposed to win by 1 pip, but you lost
I guess it will be really hard to win on HighLow.
That is the truth.
Especially, if you use those indicators
You should watch out this year, 2019,
6 RD combo
If you use those indicators
you are going to have a disadvantage in the HighLow market.
Let me talk to you about the reasons.
The reasons that you are going to have a disadvantage on your trade
those who trade with a small amount of money ($10~$50) don’t have to read because it is not related to your trade.
But if you use Oscillator indications, this information might help your trade.
There are 3 reasons.
First of all,
The spread got bigger
There was the spread already, but it was not that big and didn’t make my trade messed up.
Until November 2018, these are the spreads for each currency. ( HighLow )
It is changeable by the amount of bet.
But, this was the maximum number of the spread.
And then, now, from December 2018, is
Spread 3 → spread 5
Spread 4 → spread 6
Spread 5 → spread 7~8
8 spread is the same as 4 years ago 😊
But the payout is still 2.00, so they are just doing too much I guess.
I thought the spread was only for the end of the year and beginning of the year, but
( A volatility will be small at that time, so traders are easy to win )
Even it already passed 14 days from a new year, it still doesn’t change.
So I guess they will not change the spreads.
Binary Option is easy to earn the pips,
so I guess there are many traders who shifted to Binary Option from Forex.
Even you earn just 1 pip, you get the trade.
Forex takes a long time to make the profit, but Binary Option is really faster.
But this time, because of the spread, it is going to be harder to win.
So I guess traders came from Forex will go back to Forex again lol
People who don’t make a profit yet will think
「It is just 3 pips~」or 「I don’t care such a small change」
But if you have the knowledge, and be able to take a backtest, it is very severe matters.
Especially, if you can take the backtest, this will really affect trades.
How much will the win rate be changed if 1 pip the spread goes up?
Around 0.7%, the win rate will drop off.
This time, 3 pips got bigger, so the win rate will get down 2.1%
If you want to increase your win rate by 2.1%, it is really hard…
In order to raise the win rate by 1%, I got to cut one third entry points of my trades, so 2.1% is going to be….. omg…
HighLow has around a million customers, so even this 1 pip, they will get huge
This change is definitely going to affect your trade.
It gets faster to receive the spread
This really affects traders who bet a lot of money per trade.
From $50,000 to $100,000 was the line that you get the spread.
But now is,
From $40,000, you will get the spread.
It is totally different from the previous.
So if you have many positions on one-time trade, the beginning of positions will be good, but the end of positions will get a disadvantage.
It means you got to earn many pips in order to win.
Even you could win in 2018, it will hard to win in 2019.
If you use Signal tool, and there are more than 100 people who use the same Signal tool, there will be the spread. So, of course, some can win. Others will lose.
If you trade by 1 hr, you might don’t have to care about the spread, but between 1 ~ 9 min trade will hard to win.
If you trade between that, you got to be careful.
10 ~ 15 min trade will be fine because the average price action moves bigger.
Even there is no volatility, the spread will appear.
It used to take time to show up the spread when the volatility is small (When the price doesn’t move in HighLow screen).
But now, the spread comes out really quickly.
This affects most of you guys.
Mostly, businessman and people who work part-time job finish their work like evening and start trading from 21:00. But this time doesn’t have a lot of volatility.
Especially, If the market goes the same way as last year, it will be really severe because last year, 2018, the NY market didn’t have much volatility.
The spread gets easy to come out when people, who work daytime, trade.
So HighLow is clearly trying to hunt those people.
Well, If I were HighLow executive, I would do the same thing lol
Because those people get easy to be emotional when they have the trade, so it is easy to get those suckers. Moreover, they have their job, so will make a deposit again once they lost all of the money on their account.
So those who work daytime and trade at night should check
The flow of the market
You must do those two things before you trade.
Especially, if you use a signal tool, please keep those in your mind because you guys don’t care about those, aren’t you?
※What is the flow of the market?
- The width between the highest price of line and the lowest price of line.
- Average volatility (ATR)
- Pips of a rebound where you are trying to enter
You got to check out those things at least.
Most of Signal Tools uses logics based on the oscillators.
This is going to be the main reason that you are going to lose.
The win rate of indicators which I wrote at the beginning of the article is
55% ~ 57%
Even you mix those indicators when you use, this is it. You can’t earn more if you use default indicators.
I think There is no signal tool which doesn’t use those indicators
So most of you guys enter the same point.
Especially, an entry point where you might win is almost everyone same if you use the signal tool.
But the entry point where you might lose is totally different from each indicator.
I’m not going to talk about the reason this time, maybe next time
Anyway, you could win by using signal indicators last year, but you are not going to anymore.
The amount fo bet, before the spread comes out, was changed
The spread got bigger
It gets faster to receive the spread
Those three elements make “same win entry point = you get the spread”
The win rate of those signal tool was 56%, but from now it will be 53.9%
Break-even point on HighLow is 53.19%, so you barely make the profit through a year
Of course, if you do martingale, you are totally going to be out of money.
Because you are going to enter even bad position because of the spread, a martingale is going to be worse win rate.
Also, even you could win at MT4,
You will lose at HighLow
So people who sell signal tool will say
「It is your bad positions because it won at MT4」
But this is exactly right because
HighLow operates it lol
This year, it is hard to win if you use Oscillator or signal tool.
But what should we do 2019?
You got to adjust it.
You should change your trade strategy or
compromise the 2.1% reduction
I guess it is really going to severe to make money through Binary Option.
You got to take a backtest even more.
You must take it by different currency includes the spread.
It is better if you try not to use Oscillator, or make a logic which looks at the volatility of the market.
What I can say is you got to analyze the market more seriously.
If you don’t know how to take the backtest,
Try to wait 2 seconds before you enter.
Watch out the volatility. If there is row volatility, then do not enter.
Try to avoid trading around midnight, but trade at London time.
Those things are anyone can try it from right now.
So why don’t you try it?
If there is anything that I find out again, I will tell you guys immediately.